418 Rann Ct · Fredericksburg, VA 22401

$248,888

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,141 sqft · Condo public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1977 $84/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

About this home: Handyman and investor special! Rarely available 3-bedroom townhome at this price these days. Needs substantial renovation, but it provides great potential to build your equity value. Don't miss the opportunity to grab it quickly, as the owner is likely to change mind and renovate it by himself and then sell for a regular price. Please contact owner directly for showing and offering.

Key facts

• $84 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($354/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Fredericksburg City Public School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #119 of 131 in VA (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hugh Mercer Elementary (959 students, 84% FRL); Walker-Grant Middle (math 20% / reading 46%, grade F, #332 of 342 statewide, top 97%, 750 students, 83% FRL); James Monroe High (math 25% / reading 70%, grade D, #304 of 319 statewide, top 95%, 1,002 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 54% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 121 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 37 units permitted in Fredericksburg city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fredericksburg County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $249k implies a 254% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 21% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,606 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,220
• Equity at exit: $37,110

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-58,476
• Equity at exit: $21,519

Cash invested: $69,689 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22401

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,305
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,601/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$84
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,059

Max offer price $248,888

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $100	+0% $30	+5% $-41	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-53	+0% $30	+5% $112	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $93	base $30	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,222
• Closing costs: $7,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 Rann Ct Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1141	$1,895	$1.66	0d	1	0.03mi
319 Brock Sq Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,749	$1.84	4d	1	0.07mi
330 Brock Sq Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1141	$2,050	$1.80	0d	1	0.09mi
1150 Noble Way Fredericksburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1191	$2,125	$1.78	0d	1	0.53mi
1300 Forest Vlg Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0	916	$1,450	$1.58	0d	1	0.58mi
1201 Ashford Cir Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1127	$3,600	$3.19	0d	16	0.66mi
1001 Dunes St Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$2,663	$2.56	0d	34	0.96mi
3107 Linden Ave Fredericksburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1152	$2,400	$2.08	0d	1	0.98mi
2352 Cowan Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1069	$1,899	$1.78	14d	1	1.04mi
2352 Cowan Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	772	$1,599	$2.07	0d	1	1.04mi
123 Streamview Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1280	$2,300	$1.80	45d	1	1.05mi
623 Anvil Rd Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1240	$1,795	$1.45	0d	1	1.11mi
3456 Fall Hill Ave Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,850	$2.20	18d	1	1.16mi
101 Riverside Manor Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1400	$2,425	$1.73	0d	1	1.19mi
908 Anvil Rd Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	7d	1	1.25mi
929 Anvil Rd Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,900	$1.58	45d	1	1.29mi
2000 Woodlyn Dr Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	790	$1,644	$2.08	0d	2	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $84 · $1,008/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $248,888 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $248,888 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $248,888 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $248,888 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $248,888 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-04-17
   listed $248,888 Active 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   About this home: Handyman and investor special! Rarely available 3-bedroom townhome at this price these days. Needs substantial renovation, but it provides great potential to build your equity value. Don't miss the opportunity to grab it quickly, as the owner is likely to change mind and renovate it by himself and then sell for a regular price. Please contact owner directly for showing and offering.

7. 2026-04-17
   historical $248,888 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   About this home: Handyman and investor special! Rarely available 3-bedroom townhome at this price these days. Needs substantial renovation, but it provides great potential to build your equity value. Don't miss the opportunity to grab it quickly, as the owner is likely to change mind and renovate it by himself and then sell for a regular price. Please contact owner directly for showing and offering.

8. 2016-05-18
   historical 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Are you looking for an investment opportunity? Are you looking for a low maintenance rental? This property is made of pure potential. Needs repairs but a solid investment.

9. 2016-05-16
   soldstatus $70,350 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Are you looking for an investment opportunity? Are you looking for a low maintenance rental? This property is made of pure potential. Needs repairs but a solid investment.

10. 2016-05-16
    soldstatus $70,350 Sold

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Are you looking for an investment opportunity? Are you looking for a low maintenance rental? This property is made of pure potential. Needs repairs but a solid investment.

11. 2016-03-31
    status Contract
12. 2016-03-18
    listed $68,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Are you looking for an investment opportunity? Are you looking for a low maintenance rental? This property is made of pure potential. Needs repairs but a solid investment.

13. 2016-03-18
    listed $68,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Are you looking for an investment opportunity? Are you looking for a low maintenance rental? This property is made of pure potential. Needs repairs but a solid investment.

14. 2006-12-31
    historical
15. 2006-05-25
    listed
16. 2004-04-30
    soldstatus $91,900
17. 2004-04-30
    soldstatus $91,900
18. 2004-03-18
    historical
19. 2004-03-16
    listed $91,900
20. 2000-12-28
    soldstatus $1,087,500
21. 1990-02-01
    soldstatus $312,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$440/yr (+$37/mo · 27.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,942
• − Property taxes: −$1,601
• − Insurance: −$1,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − HOA: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$7,240
• Taxable loss: −$3,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$938
• After-tax cash flow: $1,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101510
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,839
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5121
• State rank: #119 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #10735

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, VA
• County: Fredericksburg City · 28,731 people
• City population: 207,206
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 28,731
• Household income: $86,230
• Rent vs Own: 60.2% rent · 39.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1698.0

Population outlook (Fredericksburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,164 people
• By 2030: 40,700 · +12.5%
• By 2040: 50,013 · +38.3%
• By 2050: 59,947 · +65.8%
• By 2075: 83,220 · +130.1%
• By 2100: 101,491 · +180.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fredericksburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.7) · D 64.9% · R 33.2% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: 28.3pp · 2024: 31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.7 2020: D+34.8 2016: D+26.6 2012: D+26.9 2008: D+28.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.45%
• Current HPI: 332.4856
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-20.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $248,888 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $248,888 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-05-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-05-16 Sold (MLS) $70,350 MRIS
• 2016-05-16 Sold (MLS) $70,350 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-03-31 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-03-18 Listed $68,000 MRIS
• 2016-03-18 Listed $68,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-05-25 Listed — MRIS
• 2004-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $91,900 Public Records
• 2004-04-30 Sold (MLS) $91,900 MRIS
• 2004-03-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-03-16 Listed $91,900 MRIS
• 2000-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $1,087,500 Public Records
• 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $312,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,601 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.