624 Saint Judes Dr

Longboat Key, FL 34228

$700,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,201 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,385/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax + insurance: −$1,443
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,131
• Net cashflow: $-859/mo
• Annual: $-10,313/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $196,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-859 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $548k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $538k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $538k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#693 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Maria Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 190 students, 36% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 539 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $455k; list at $700k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 0.5% in Longboat Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.