624 Saint Judes Dr · Longboat Key, FL 34228

$700,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,201 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 210 Days on market

Built 1957 6,600 sqft lot Est $579k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open the door to this gut-renovated house to a sweet, light-filled space that has been carefully designed for comfort and ease of care and now needs only to be lovingly finished to enjoy! High end fixtures and appliances, exotic marble counter tops, French doors to the garden, clerestory windows that open remotely, imported Italian porcelain tile through the entire house, plenty of closet space, large pantry, 2 1/2 baths, large laundry room that can be converted to an additional bedroom if necessary, newer roof, Anderson windows, and more! Look carefully and you will see the love that was put into this renovation! The property backs up to Durante Park with the entrance to the park one house away. Best of all "Beach Access"

Key facts

• Private back gate
• Upgraded kitchen
• 6,600 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED RESIDENCE
• COASTAL MODERN DESIGN
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• UNBEATABLE WALKABILITY
• PRIVATE BACK GATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Flood zone; Located within city limits; Level lot; Near public transit; Dead-end street; Asphalt road surface
• HOA & community: No association; Community features include park, playground, sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway / street access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Fiber optics available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing; Residential property in completed condition
• Construction: Built with cement siding, frame and other materials; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Property built on a 75 x 88 lot with mature landscaping and trees; Wood fencing
• Exterior features: French doors; Exterior lighting; Irrigation equipment; Near marina; Easy public access to both Gulf and Bay

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Bar fridge; Wine refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Kitchen/family room combo; Stone counters; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Shades and window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-859 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $548k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $538k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $538k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 0.5% in Longboat Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#693 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Maria Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 190 students, 36% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 539 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $455k; list at $700k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $538,481 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $578,882
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
636 Tarawitt Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	2mo	$750,000	$601	89
755 Saint Judes Dr N	0.06mi	2/1.5	1,294 (+8%)	4mo	$575,000	$444	79
780 Jungle Queen Way	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,242 (+3%)	6mo	$600,000	$483	74
750 Saint Judes Dr N	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,246 (+4%)	18mo	$600,000	$482	72
703 Spanish Dr S	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,322 (+10%)	0mo	$430,000	$325	70
620 Spanish Dr N	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,357 (+13%)	1mo	$320,000	$236	63
618 Jungle Queen Way	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,351 (+12%)	9mo	$650,100	$481	62
783 Tarawitt Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,353 (+13%)	23mo	$1,140,000	$843	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-50,669
• Equity at exit: $229,105

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $6,579
• Equity at exit: $296,974

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34228

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 539
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,385 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax from tax record: −$724 /mo · $8,692/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,131
• Net cashflow: $-859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,473

Max offer price $548,176

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
655 Cedars Ct #655 Longboat Key, FL	1.0	2.0	1244	$7,000	$5.63	23d	1	0.21mi
5621 Gulf of Mexico Dr #102 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$6,000	$4.46	23d	1	0.22mi
535 Forest Way Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.5	1440	$6,900	$4.79	23d	1	0.25mi
730 Spanish Dr S #99 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1255	$2,800	$2.23	1d	1	0.28mi
676 El Centro Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$3,250	$2.28	23d	1	0.30mi
820 Spanish Dr S Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$3,000	$2.16	15d	1	0.31mi
573 Spanish Dr N Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	15d	1	0.36mi
914 Spanish Dr S #76 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1341	$6,500	$4.85	23d	1	0.38mi
957 Spanish Dr N Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1399	$5,500	$3.93	23d	1	0.46mi
615 Dream Island Rd #107 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1293	$12,500	$9.67	23d	1	0.82mi
4825 Gulf of Mexico Dr #201 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1393	$7,800	$5.60	23d	1	1.03mi
4420 Exeter Dr #208 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1168	$4,900	$4.20	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $700,000 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $700,000 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $700,000 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $700,000 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $700,000 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $700,000 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $749,900 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $749,900 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $749,900 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $749,900 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $749,900 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $749,900 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $749,900 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $749,900 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $749,900
16. 2026-03-25
    price $764,900
17. 2026-03-03
    price $789,500
18. 2026-01-20
    price $799,500
19. 2025-11-20
    listed $840,000 Active
20. 2021-03-26
    soldstatus $455,000 Closed 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Open the door to this gut-renovated house to a sweet, light-filled space that has been carefully designed for comfort and ease of care and now needs only to be lovingly finished to enjoy! High end fixtures and appliances, exotic marble counter tops, French doors to the garden, clerestory windows that open remotely, imported Italian porcelain tile through the entire house, plenty of closet space, large pantry, 2 1/2 baths, large laundry room that can be converted to an additional bedroom if necessary, newer roof, Anderson windows, and more! Look carefully and you will see the love that was put into this renovation! The property backs up to Durante Park with the entrance to the park one house away. Best of all "Beach Access"

21. 2021-02-28
    status Pending 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Open the door to this gut-renovated house to a sweet, light-filled space that has been carefully designed for comfort and ease of care and now needs only to be lovingly finished to enjoy! High end fixtures and appliances, exotic marble counter tops, French doors to the garden, clerestory windows that open remotely, imported Italian porcelain tile through the entire house, plenty of closet space, large pantry, 2 1/2 baths, large laundry room that can be converted to an additional bedroom if necessary, newer roof, Anderson windows, and more! Look carefully and you will see the love that was put into this renovation! The property backs up to Durante Park with the entrance to the park one house away. Best of all "Beach Access"

22. 2021-02-03
    price $480,000 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Open the door to this gut-renovated house to a sweet, light-filled space that has been carefully designed for comfort and ease of care and now needs only to be lovingly finished to enjoy! High end fixtures and appliances, exotic marble counter tops, French doors to the garden, clerestory windows that open remotely, imported Italian porcelain tile through the entire house, plenty of closet space, large pantry, 2 1/2 baths, large laundry room that can be converted to an additional bedroom if necessary, newer roof, Anderson windows, and more! Look carefully and you will see the love that was put into this renovation! The property backs up to Durante Park with the entrance to the park one house away. Best of all "Beach Access"

23. 2021-01-18
    listed $495,000 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Open the door to this gut-renovated house to a sweet, light-filled space that has been carefully designed for comfort and ease of care and now needs only to be lovingly finished to enjoy! High end fixtures and appliances, exotic marble counter tops, French doors to the garden, clerestory windows that open remotely, imported Italian porcelain tile through the entire house, plenty of closet space, large pantry, 2 1/2 baths, large laundry room that can be converted to an additional bedroom if necessary, newer roof, Anderson windows, and more! Look carefully and you will see the love that was put into this renovation! The property backs up to Durante Park with the entrance to the park one house away. Best of all "Beach Access"

24. 2013-01-31
    soldstatus $208,000
25. 2013-01-30
    soldstatus $208,000 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Handy man Special on Longboat Key! Duplex - 2 bedroom, 1 bath with Florida room on one side and 1 bedroom, 1 bath with screened lanai on other side. Lush Tropical setting backing up to Durante Park, nature preserve of 20 acres. Deeded beach access and bay. Fishing pier at end of street. Beach Bungalow with Terrazzo floors. Close to restaurants & shopping. Steps to beach! Like having your own park in the backyard. Very private location with deeded beach access. Great Rental Investment.

26. 2012-10-31
    listed $210,000 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Handy man Special on Longboat Key! Duplex - 2 bedroom, 1 bath with Florida room on one side and 1 bedroom, 1 bath with screened lanai on other side. Lush Tropical setting backing up to Durante Park, nature preserve of 20 acres. Deeded beach access and bay. Fishing pier at end of street. Beach Bungalow with Terrazzo floors. Close to restaurants & shopping. Steps to beach! Like having your own park in the backyard. Very private location with deeded beach access. Great Rental Investment.

27. 2011-08-22
    listed $299,000
28. 2011-02-15
    listed $299,000
29. 2010-10-01
    listed $320,000
30. 2009-12-29
    listed $320,000
31. 1995-10-09
    soldstatus $15,000
32. 1994-04-21
    soldstatus $114,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,692 · $724/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,692 · $724/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$8,692
• − Insurance: −$8,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,169
• − Management: −$5,169
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable loss: −$22,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,426
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Longboat Key

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #693
• US rank: #14452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Longboat Key, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 7,539
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,539
• Household income: $158,030
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 234.5017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+556.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $749,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $764,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $789,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $799,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listed $840,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-26 Sold (MLS) $455,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-03 Price Changed $480,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-18 Listed $495,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $208,000 Public Records
• 2013-01-30 Sold (MLS) $208,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-31 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-22 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-15 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-01 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-29 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $114,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,692 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.