4532 17th St

San Francisco, CA 94114

$2,995,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,006
• Tax + insurance: −$3,635
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,125
• Net cashflow: $-13,645/mo
• Annual: $-163,745/yr
• Cap rate: 1.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.03%
• DSCR: 0.24
• 1% rule: 0.29%
• Cash to close: $961,392

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $3.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14k ($-164k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.02M (65.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.01M (66.2% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.95M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.01M (66.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $350k of equity ($24k loan paydown + $326k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $800k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$562k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $10,121/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($204k/yr) (locally 1336% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.