323 Union Ave

Newark, NJ 07111-2211

$449,000F

6 bd · 6.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$1,093
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-1,117/mo
• Annual: $-13,402/yr
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.66%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (43.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (34.3% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#343 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, housing D+, crime F.
• Irvington Public School District (suburban): math 4% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #465 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.