5711 Sugar Hill Dr #108

Houston, TX 77057

$130,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 909 sqft · Built 1977 · Condo · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,383/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$495
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-373/mo
• Annual: $-4,475/yr
• Cap rate: 2.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.29%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $64k (50.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (50.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Briargrove El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 836 students, 56% FRL); Tanglewood Middle (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 808 students, 62% FRL); Wisdom H S (math 17% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,260 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $130k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?