3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
864 sqft ·
Built 1963
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 146 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,615/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,141
Tax + insurance
−$1,425
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,389
Net cashflow
$660/mo
Annual
$7,918/yr
Cap rate
8.47%
Cash-on-cash
7.77%
DSCR
1.35
1% rule
1.10%
Cash to close
$167,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $599k).
It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $527k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $29k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lake Park Elementary School (math 76% / reading 77%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 502 students, 39% FRL); Naples High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,719 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 55% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 614 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $62k; list at $599k implies a 866% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $6,615/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($131k/yr) (locally 333% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NQ61Z2D34PPS0Q
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29