2408 Ky Hwy 451

Hazard, KY 41701

$169,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,682 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,547/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$337
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-18/yr
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-18/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (8.5% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $155k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Perry County (rural): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #96 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Perry County Central High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 877 students, 67% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.
• Perry County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.0% in Hazard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dark and dated
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Moderate: exterior siding — some wear