2408 Ky Hwy 451 · Hazard, KY 41701

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,682 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1961 Average condition 1.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location just minutes from downtown Hazard and the hospital. On a large 1.47 acre semi private lot. This charming one level home features a stunning galley kitchen with a dining area, large living room, along with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Large detached garage great for a work space or storage.

Key facts

• 1.47 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1961

Tags

• LARGE SEMI PRIVATE LOT
• STUNNING GALLEY KITCHEN
• LARGE DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot of approximately 1.47 acres

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Partial basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-18/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.0% in Hazard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Perry County (rural): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #96 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Perry County Central High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 877 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Perry County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,682 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-27,422
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-23,766
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41701

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,549

Max offer price $168,787

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $57	+0% $-1	+5% $-60	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-63	+0% $-1	+5% $60	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $42	base $-1	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 309-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   listed $169,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$1,512
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$2,838
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$681
• After-tax cash flow: $663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which would increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dark and dated
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Moderate exterior siding — some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the kitchen and increases value
• Both repair exterior siding — improves curb appeal and structural integrity

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dark and dated	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · some wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the kitchen and increases value ↑
• Both repair exterior siding — improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Perry County
• NCES district ID: 2104770
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $32,540
• Composite: 26.53/100
• National rank: #7196
• State rank: #96 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hazard

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #9701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,646

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,976 people
• By 2030: 23,390 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 20,270 · -18.8%
• By 2050: 17,547 · -29.7%
• By 2075: 12,599 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 9,358 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.5) · D 19.7% · R 79.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -59.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.5 2020: R+54.3 2016: R+57.0 2012: R+58.5 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.13%
• Current HPI: 143.629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $169,000 EKAR