15181 Van Buren Blvd #301

Woodcrest, CA 92504

$194,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,227/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $413/mo
• Annual: $4,952/yr
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#518 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Riverside Unified (urban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #574 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.2% in Woodcrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.