15181 Van Buren Blvd #301 · Woodcrest, CA 92504

$194,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $197k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home in the highly desirable Rancho Caballero Mobile Home Park! Featuring 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this cozy residence offers a comfortable and functional layout. The primary suite includes its own private bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. The open concept living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating a warm and inviting space for relaxing or entertaining. Situated on a spacious lot, the home boasts a large backyard full of potential and a beautifully landscaped front yard with decorative rock accents. The extended driveway easily accommodates up to three vehicles. Rancho Caballero is one of Riverside’s most sought-after communities, offering resort-style amenities including two swimming pools, a relaxing spa, clubhouse, tennis court, two pickleball courts, and more. Don’t miss your chance to own a home in this vibrant and welcoming neighborhood—schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Step saving kitchen
• Open layout
• Spacious living room

Tags

• PREMIUM EXTRA LARGE LOT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• STEP SAVING KITCHEN
• LOTS OF CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: Repairs cosmetic
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Land lease: $1,075 monthly (park); Park name: Rancho Caballero; Community features include storm drains and suburban setting; Rent includes pool (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Manager approval required for park residency
• Utilities: Electricity on property; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected (public sewer); Water connected (district/public)
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry on side; Entry level: 1; Mobile home (24' x 40') — model GV409A0; Mobile home remains; One total story
• Construction: Vinyl and wood frame construction; Pier jacks foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Covered wood porch and patio; Patio; Lighting; In-ground community pool; Shed (1); Flat rectangular lot with front and back yard; Private paved road frontage; South-facing; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Water heater unit; Formica counters; Kitchen open to family room; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on main level; Main floor primary bedroom; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Main floor full bath; Shower in tub
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Open floor plan; High ceilings (9 feet+); Laminate counters; Blinds and screens; No interior steps; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Gas dryer hookup; Washer/dryer hookups available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.2% in Woodcrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#518 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Riverside Unified (urban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #574 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15181 Van Buren Blvd #301	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	9mo	$186,000	$194	93
15181 Van Buren	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	880 (-8%)	2mo	$180,000	$205	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $877
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $61,371
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92504

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16877 Orangecrest Ct Unit B Riverside, CA	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	5d	1	0.79mi
16875 Orangecrest Ct Riverside, CA	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	2d	1	0.82mi
16875 Orangecrest Ct Unit B Riverside, CA	1.0	1.0	1033	$2,100	$2.03	5d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $194,900 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 695-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $194,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,138
• − Management: −$2,138
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $1,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$472
• After-tax cash flow: $4,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverside Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,038
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #574 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Woodcrest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #17500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodcrest, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,132
• Household income: $92,477
• Rent vs Own: 35.6% rent · 64.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1669.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 28% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 37% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -457.73%
• Current HPI: 414.1936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.67%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+596.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $194,900 CRMLS
• 2025-10-03 Sold (MLS) $186,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-08-08 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $185,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-25 Coming Soon $185,000 CRMLS
• 2023-11-30 Sold (MLS) $170,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-23 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-10-02 Listed $170,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-26 Coming Soon $170,000 CRMLS
• 2014-09-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-06-29 Price Changed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2014-03-15 Price Changed $48,500 CRMLS
• 2014-03-03 Price Changed $50,000 CRMLS
• 2014-01-28 Listed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2010-08-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-08-20 Price Changed $26,000 CRMLS
• 2010-08-06 Listed $28,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $279 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.