605 NE Kelly Dr NE

Hoxie, AR 72476

$139,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,093 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $105/mo
• Annual: $1,264/yr
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.25%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (13.8% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $120k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#312 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hoxie School District (town): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #158 of 238 in AR (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $139k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.