605 NE Kelly Dr NE · Hoxie, AR 72476

$139,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,093 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Est $106k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

A smart investment or the perfect opportunity for an owner‑occupant looking to build equity. This home offers three comfortable bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms, providing a functional layout for everyday living. The kitchen opens seamlessly to the living and dining areas, creating an inviting space for gathering and entertaining. You'll appreciate the ample counter space, natural light from the kitchen window, and the convenience of an indoor laundry room. A solid property with great potential to personalize, update, or rent. See agent remarks * * *

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Large backyard
• Granite countertops

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILED SHOWER
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property tax listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Porch; Chain link fencing; Level lot; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; Hardwood and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#312 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hoxie School District (town): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #158 of 238 in AR (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $139k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $119,797 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.25%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,021
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 NE Kelly	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,093 (0%)	3mo	$50,000	$46	97
104 NE Dorothy Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,071 (-2%)	8mo	$129,000	$120	79
320 Kentucky St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,022 (-6%)	4mo	$20,000	$20	66
106 NE Carolina St	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (+1%)	13mo	$155,000	$140	65
403 Tennessee Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+7%)	6mo	$133,000	$114	60
213 SE 4th St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+1%)	15mo	$142,000	$129	55
214 Virginia St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,022 (-6%)	16mo	$5,000	$5	53
206 Tennessee Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,041 (-5%)	18mo	$55,000	$53	48
204 SE 4th St E	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,004 (-8%)	4mo	$75,000	$75	46
703 E Elm St E	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,247 (+14%)	1mo	$113,000	$91	39
311 SE Front St SE	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+11%)	14mo	$117,500	$97	36
1176 Midway Rd	0.72mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,234 (+13%)	6mo	$174,800	$142	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $29,503
• Equity at exit: $68,995

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $88,277
• Equity at exit: $111,682

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72476

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,065

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $145	+0% $105	+5% $66	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $11	-5% $58	+0% $105	+5% $153	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $141	base $105	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-09
   listed $139,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 36.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,150
• − Management: −$1,150
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,100
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$264
• After-tax cash flow: $1,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoxie School District
• NCES district ID: 0507990
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,220
• Composite: 24.51/100
• National rank: #7648
• State rank: #158 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hoxie

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #20774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hoxie, AR
• Population (ZIP): 7,565

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,453 people
• By 2030: 14,697 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,247 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 11,937 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 9,466 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,441 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.0) · D 16.9% · R 81.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -64.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.0 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 231.817
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+456.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $139,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-03-16 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Sold (MLS) $50,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-02-19 Delisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Listed $59,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $59,900 CARMLS
• 1992-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +331.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.