143 Essex Dr

Winslow, NJ 08081

$369,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,962 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,094/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$617
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,354/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $103,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $370k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (16.4% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $309k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Winslow Township School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #387 of 472 in NJ (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Winslow Township Elementary School Four (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,065 of 1,303 statewide, top 83%, 493 students, 44% FRL); Winslow Township Middle School (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #335 of 431 statewide, top 79%, 764 students, 46% FRL); Winslow Township High School (math 10% / reading 36%, grade F, #337 of 399 statewide, top 85%, 1,273 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Winslow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.