143 Essex Dr · Winslow, NJ 08081

$369,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,962 sqft · Townhouse · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $189/sqft · at area comps Est $373k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Lafayette by D. R. Horton is a stunning new construction townhome plan featuring 1,962 square feet of living space, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 1-car garage. The convenience of townhome living meets the amenities of a single-family home with the Lafayette. The main level eat-in kitchen with large modern island opens up to an airy, bright dining and living room, with a powder room off to the side. The upper-level features 3 bedrooms, all with generous closet space, a hall bath, upstairs laundry, and spacious owner's suite that highlights a large walk-in closet. The lower level features a finished recreation room that is a nice additional space for both entertaining and storage.

Key facts

• Large modern island
• New construction
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE MODERN ISLAND
• AIRY BRIGHT DINING ROOM
• FINISHED RECREATION ROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $370k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Winslow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Winslow Township School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #387 of 472 in NJ (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Winslow Township Elementary School Four (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,065 of 1,303 statewide, top 83%, 493 students, 44% FRL); Winslow Township Middle School (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #335 of 431 statewide, top 79%, 764 students, 46% FRL); Winslow Township High School (math 10% / reading 36%, grade F, #337 of 399 statewide, top 85%, 1,273 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,375 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,740
• List price: $369,990
• Delta: -0.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
131 Essex Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,962 (0%)	0mo	$344,490	$176	98
139 Essex Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,962 (0%)	2mo	$359,990	$183	98
123 Essex Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,962 (0%)	0mo	$359,990	$183	98
137 Essex Dr	0.01mi	3/3.0	1,962 (0%)	1mo	$368,640	$188	96
125 Essex Dr	0.04mi	3/3.0	1,962 (0%)	0mo	$369,990	$189	96
184 Sandy Ridge Rd	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,962 (0%)	1mo	$368,990	$188	92
190 Sandy Ridge Rd	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,962 (0%)	1mo	$363,990	$186	92
192 Sandy Ridge Rd	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,962 (0%)	1mo	$384,490	$196	92
186 Sandy Ridge Rd	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,962 (0%)	2mo	$365,490	$186	92
188 Sandy Ridge Rd	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,962 (0%)	2mo	$365,490	$186	92
182 Sandy Ridge Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,962 (0%)	1mo	$380,490	$194	92
174 Freedom Way	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,165 (+10%)	1mo	$420,000	$194	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-65,814
• Equity at exit: $55,167

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-61,073
• Equity at exit: $31,990

Cash invested: $103,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 73 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.1 mo (32%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $358,740 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 77% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08081

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$462 /mo · $5,550/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,237

Max offer price $353,660

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $15	+0% $-113	+5% $-241	+10% $-369
Rent	-10% $-357	-5% $-235	+0% $-113	+5% $9	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $-19	base $-113	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,498
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Essex Ave Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$3,100	$1.58	21d	1	0.03mi
137 Essex Dr Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$3,000	$1.53	0d	1	0.03mi
120 Essex Dr Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$3,100	$1.58	13d	1	0.05mi
120 Essex Dr Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$3,100	$1.58	102d	1	0.05mi
116 Essex Dr Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$2,850	$1.45	15d	1	0.05mi
128 Essex Dr Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$2,980	$1.52	17d	1	0.05mi
107 Clinton St Erial, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$2,900	$1.48	75d	1	0.07mi
104 Clinton St Erial, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$2,850	$1.45	19d	1	0.09mi
106 Clinton St Erial, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$3,000	$1.53	38d	1	0.09mi
129 Gary Way Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$2,850	$1.45	0d	1	0.10mi
131 Gary Way Winslow Township, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$3,050	$1.55	106d	1	0.10mi
127 Gary Way Winslow Township, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$2,999	$1.53	43d	1	0.10mi
103 Clinton St Erial, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$3,100	$1.58	184d	1	0.12mi
119 Clinton St Erial, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$3,200	$1.63	184d	1	0.12mi
144 Gary Way Winslow Township, NJ	3.0	2.5	1962	$3,000	$1.53	46d	1	0.13mi
190 Sandy Ridge Rd Unit 190 Berlin, NJ	3.0	2.5	1960	$2,900	$1.48	3d	1	0.17mi
119 Plaza Dr Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	1919	$3,200	$1.67	184d	1	0.26mi
141 Quiet Rd Sicklerville, NJ	4.0	2.5	2054	$6,000	$2.92	0d	1	0.30mi
141 Quiet Rd Sicklerville, NJ	4.0	2.5	2054	$6,000	$2.92	5d	1	0.30mi
20 Normans Ford Dr Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	1606	$2,795	$1.74	0d	1	0.59mi
114 Freedom Way Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	1919	$3,250	$1.69	86d	1	0.66mi
112 Freedom Way Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	3.0	2165	$3,300	$1.52	15d	1	0.67mi
108 Freedom Way Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	2165	$3,200	$1.48	0d	1	0.68mi
4 Coachlight Dr Unit 4 Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	1.5	1755	$3,100	$1.77	114d	1	0.68mi
74 Colts Neck Dr Sicklerville, NJ	3.0	2.5	2264	$2,750	$1.21	10d	1	0.88mi
99 Brightmoor Rd Winslow Township, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$3,130	$2.72	0d	21	1.03mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $369,990 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   remarks 689-char remark
3. 2026-06-02
   listed $369,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,725
• − Property taxes: −$5,550
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,970
• − Management: −$2,970
• − Depreciation: −$10,763
• Taxable loss: −$7,703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,849
• After-tax cash flow: $495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Lafayette by D.R. Horton townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like painting and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and attract potential buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Lighting — Upgrading lighting can make the home more inviting and energy-efficient ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Winslow Township Elementary School Two F NJ #1,012/1,303 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Winslow Township Elementary School Five F NJ #365/431 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Winslow Township High School F NJ #337/399 Nat'l #13,542/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winslow Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3418060
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,254
• Composite: 22.65/100
• National rank: #8057
• State rank: #387 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Winslow

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sicklerville, NJ
• County: Camden County · 507,964 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 50,264
• Household income: $105,800
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 507,964 people
• By 2030: 502,182 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 485,602 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 465,630 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 419,986 · -17.3%
• By 2100: 369,492 · -27.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 34% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 63.0% · R 35.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+36.6 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.48%
• Current HPI: 303.1017
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $369,990 BRIGHT MLS