2515 Johnson Ave

Ferry Pass, FL 32514

$249,900D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · Built 1949 · Other · Active · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,754/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-158/mo
• Annual: $-1,901/yr
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (29.8% below list).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#664 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ferry Pass Elementary School (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 567 students, 74% FRL); Ferry Pass Middle School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 1,014 students, 64% FRL); Pine Forest High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,870 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 217 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $133k; list at $250k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in Ferry Pass — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.