2515 Johnson Ave · Ferry Pass, FL 32514

$249,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · Other public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1949 0.51 ac lot $139/sqft · 16% below area Est $298k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming older wood frame home is full of character and opportunity, offering a spacious lot with plenty of room to expand, design your dream outdoor space, or simply enjoy added privacy and flexibility. Whether you're searching for a place to call home or an investment with future upside, this property is ready for your vision and personal touch. As an added bonus, an additional property at the front is included, creating exciting possibilities! Opportunities like this don’t come around often. Call today to schedule your private tour!

Key facts

• Mixed use property
• Future expansion
• Commercial space

Tags

• MIXED USE PROPERTY
• COMMERCIAL SPACE
• BARBER SHOP
• LARGE LOT
• FUTURE EXPANSION
• REDEVELOPMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in Ferry Pass — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#664 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 218 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $133k; list at $250k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $175,378 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,097
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -16.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-54,535
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-75,996
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32514

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,551/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,954

Max offer price $221,919

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-88	+0% $-158	+5% $-229	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-228	+0% $-158	+5% $-89	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-95	base $-158	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8707 N Davis Hwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,983	$1.95	15d	38	0.45mi
161 Mirabelle Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1701	$2,000	$1.18	24d	1	0.55mi
112 Mirabelle Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,850	$1.17	24d	1	0.70mi
1613 Governors Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,600	$1.25	24d	1	0.89mi
2220 Gloria Cir Pensacola, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1123	$1,600	$1.42	15d	1	0.89mi
9004 Governors Place Ct Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,450	$1.16	15d	1	0.91mi
1600 Governors Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,681	$1.66	15d	25	0.93mi
3505 Mossy Oak Villas Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1738	$1,800	$1.04	24d	1	0.98mi
3514 Mossy Oak Villas Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1738	$2,000	$1.15	24d	1	1.01mi
3514 Mossy Oak Villas Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1738	$2,000	$1.15	15d	1	1.01mi
9184 Arand Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,575	$1.17	22d	1	1.01mi
8053 Malibu Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,810	$1.15	15d	1	1.03mi
7840 Lilac Ln Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,690	$1.65	15d	16	1.10mi
9100 Baldridge Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,711	$1.57	15d	13	1.20mi
7104 Cedar Grove Way Ferry Pass, FL	3.0	2.5	1534	$1,850	$1.21	15d	37	1.31mi
8108 Ridgefield Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	15d	1	1.31mi
7074 Javelin Ct Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1543	$1,850	$1.20	15d	30	1.43mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $249,900 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    This charming older wood frame home is full of character and opportunity, offering a spacious lot with plenty of room to expand, design your dream outdoor space, or simply enjoy added privacy and flexibility. Whether you're searching for a place to call home or an investment with future upside, this property is ready for your vision and personal touch. As an added bonus, an additional property at the front is included, creating exciting possibilities! Opportunities like this don’t come around often. Call today to schedule your private tour!

17. 2026-03-11
    price $254,900 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    This charming older wood frame home is full of character and opportunity, offering a spacious lot with plenty of room to expand, design your dream outdoor space, or simply enjoy added privacy and flexibility. Whether you're searching for a place to call home or an investment with future upside, this property is ready for your vision and personal touch. As an added bonus, an additional property at the front is included, creating exciting possibilities! Opportunities like this don’t come around often. Call today to schedule your private tour!

18. 2026-01-15
    listed $264,900 Active 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    This charming older wood frame home is full of character and opportunity, offering a spacious lot with plenty of room to expand, design your dream outdoor space, or simply enjoy added privacy and flexibility. Whether you're searching for a place to call home or an investment with future upside, this property is ready for your vision and personal touch. As an added bonus, an additional property at the front is included, creating exciting possibilities! Opportunities like this don’t come around often. Call today to schedule your private tour!

19. 2024-06-03
    soldstatus $133,000 Sold 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Unique property is mixed-use. There is a small commercial space being used as a hair salon fronting E. Johnson and an older wood frame house behind the commercial space. Both properties are currently rented and providing rental income. The house has been added on to multiple times and needs some work. The lot is large and there is the potential for expanded use.

20. 2024-04-19
    historical Contingent 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Unique property is mixed-use. There is a small commercial space being used as a hair salon fronting E. Johnson and an older wood frame house behind the commercial space. Both properties are currently rented and providing rental income. The house has been added on to multiple times and needs some work. The lot is large and there is the potential for expanded use.

21. 2024-04-03
    price $149,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Unique property is mixed-use. There is a small commercial space being used as a hair salon fronting E. Johnson and an older wood frame house behind the commercial space. Both properties are currently rented and providing rental income. The house has been added on to multiple times and needs some work. The lot is large and there is the potential for expanded use.

22. 2024-01-18
    listed $159,000 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Unique property is mixed-use. There is a small commercial space being used as a hair salon fronting E. Johnson and an older wood frame house behind the commercial space. Both properties are currently rented and providing rental income. The house has been added on to multiple times and needs some work. The lot is large and there is the potential for expanded use.

23. 1989-09-01
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$523/yr (+$44/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,551
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$6,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,534
• After-tax cash flow: $-367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ferry Pass

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #664
• US rank: #13543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferry Pass, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 43,072
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,447
• Household income: $66,644
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1962.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 22% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.99%
• Current HPI: 266.7408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.76%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+399.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $249,900 PARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $254,900 PARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $264,900 PARMLS
• 2024-06-03 Sold (MLS) $133,000 PARMLS
• 2024-04-19 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $149,000 PARMLS
• 2024-01-18 Listed $159,000 PARMLS
• 1989-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2017): $1,551 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.