830 Dogwood Dr

Red Bay, AL 35582

$159,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,104/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-135/mo
• Annual: $-1,624/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (30.6% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-14 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#194 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin County (rural): math 17% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #84 of 129 in AL (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.