830 Dogwood Dr · Red Bay, AL 35582

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1976 0.73 ac lot $93/sqft · 20% above area Est $174k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

830 Dogwood Dr. in Red Bay is a charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath remodel with original hardwood floors, and endless potential. Whether you’re an investor, a first-time homebuyer, or someone looking for an affordable home, this property offers a fantastic opportunity at a hard-to-find price point in an excellent location. This property has the feel of being in the country, but sits just minutes from Red Bay High School and downtown.

Key facts

• Excellent location
• 0.73 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EXCELLENT LOCATION
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#194 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin County (rural): math 17% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #84 of 129 in AL (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-14 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,367 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,596
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -8.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,376
• Equity at exit: $46,100

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,123
• Equity at exit: $55,359

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35582

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,286/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $135,090

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-90	+0% $-135	+5% $-180	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-179	+0% $-135	+5% $-92	+10% $-48
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-95	base $-135	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $159,000 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $159,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-04-13
    listed $165,000 Active 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    830 Dogwood Dr. in Red Bay is a charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath remodel with original hardwood floors, and endless potential. Whether you’re an investor, a first-time homebuyer, or someone looking for an affordable home, this property offers a fantastic opportunity at a hard-to-find price point in an excellent location. This property has the feel of being in the country, but sits just minutes from Red Bay High School and downtown.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,286
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,060
• − Management: −$1,060
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$4,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $-547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 0101590
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,979
• Composite: 22.08/100
• National rank: #8187
• State rank: #84 of 129 in AL

Livability — Red Bay

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #15693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Bay, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,507

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,545 people
• By 2030: 31,335 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 30,983 · -1.8%
• By 2050: 30,744 · -2.5%
• By 2075: 30,173 · -4.3%
• By 2100: 29,478 · -6.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.3) · D 13.0% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: -39.2pp · 2024: -73.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.3 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+60.8 2012: R+40.5 2008: R+39.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Current HPI: 172.2008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $165,000 SAARMLS

Property tax history

+81.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,286 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.