5122 Orangeville Kinsman Rd

Orangeville, OH 44404

$129,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $183/mo
• Annual: $2,190/yr
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.06%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#873 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Joseph Badger Local (rural): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #397 of 656 in OH (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.