5122 Orangeville Kinsman Rd · Orangeville, OH 44404

$129,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 1979 3.00 ac lot $60/sqft · 43% below area Est $221k · 42% under ↓ 53% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on 3 scenic acres, this country property offers the space, privacy, and versatility rural buyers are looking for. With mature trees, open yard space and a peaceful stream winding along the back of the property, the setting delivers a quiet country atmosphere that’s becoming harder to find. The home offers a functional single level layout with 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, spacious living and dining areas, a large kitchen, first-floor laundry and an oversized multi-purpose room with endless possibilities for additional living space or a home-based business, as it has a separate side entrance that provides added flexibility for business use, guests or private access. Recent

Key facts

• 3 scenic acres
• Peaceful stream
• Mature trees

Tags

• 3 SCENIC ACRES
• MATURE TREES
• PEACEFUL STREAM
• FUNCTIONAL SINGLE LEVEL LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED MULTI-PURPOSE ROOM
• SEPARATE SIDE ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#873 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Joseph Badger Local (rural): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #397 of 656 in OH (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $127,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.06%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,630
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 19.66%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,917
• Equity at exit: $24,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $16,317
• Equity at exit: $21,213

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44404

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,307 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,436/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $256	-5% $219	+0% $183	+5% $146	+10% $109
Rent	-10% $79	-5% $131	+0% $183	+5% $234	+10% $286
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $215	base $183	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $129,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-18
    historical
12. 2026-05-18
    listed $195,000 Active 1679-char remark
13. 2026-04-10
    price $264,000
14. 2026-04-02
    listed $274,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,724 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,436
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27
• After-tax cash flow: $2,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joseph Badger Local
• NCES district ID: 3905017
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,379
• Composite: 45.26/100
• National rank: #2659
• State rank: #397 of 656 in OH

Livability — Orangeville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #873
• US rank: #16571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Trumbull · 193,293 people
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 1,712
• Household income: $47,058
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.02%
• Current HPI: 138.76
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-52.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $129,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-18 Listed $195,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $264,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-02 Listed $274,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,436 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.