The McGinnis Plan

Kimberly, AL 35091

$284,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 286 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,614
• Tax + insurance: −$579
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-455/mo
• Annual: $-5,462/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.41%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $86,168

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-455 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (22.8% below list).
• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bryan Elementary School (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #194 of 627 statewide, top 32%, 681 students, 37% FRL); North Jefferson Middle School (math 13% / reading 45%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 666 students, 52% FRL); Mortimer Jordan High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #114 of 305 statewide, top 38%, 861 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jefferson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.