The McGinnis Plan · Kimberly, AL 35091

$284,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 286 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

Key facts

• Access to the yard
• Walk-in closets
• Wide entry

Tags

• WIDE ENTRY
• TRADITIONAL DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM
• ACCESS TO THE YARD
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $284,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,742.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-455 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bryan Elementary School (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #194 of 627 statewide, top 32%, 681 students, 37% FRL); North Jefferson Middle School (math 13% / reading 45%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 666 students, 52% FRL); Mortimer Jordan High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #114 of 305 statewide, top 38%, 861 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jefferson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.41%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,742
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: -7.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9323 Brunswick Ave	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,372 (0%)	4mo	$315,805	$133	95
9327 Brunswick Ave	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,237 (-6%)	2mo	$305,490	$137	82
9316 Brunswick Ave	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,565 (+8%)	4mo	$309,995	$121	81
9319 Brunswick Ave	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (-6%)	3mo	$294,595	$132	79
9621 Meadow Ridge Pkwy	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,064 (-13%)	23mo	$325,000	$157	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $138,687
• Equity at exit: $277,239

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $431,356
• Equity at exit: $597,876

Cash invested: $86,168 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35091

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,616/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,776

Max offer price $241,875

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-243	-5% $-349	+0% $-455	+5% $-562	+10% $-668
Rent	-10% $-629	-5% $-542	+0% $-455	+5% $-368	+10% $-281
Rate	-1.0pp $-300	-0.5pp $-377	base $-455	+0.5pp $-535	+1.0pp $-616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,936
• Closing costs: $9,232
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
516 Way Station Pl Kimberly, AL	4.0	3.0	2256	$2,200	$0.98	3d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $284,900 Active 286 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,900 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,900 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,900 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,900 Active 268 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,900 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,900 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 265 DOM
15. 2025-12-12
    price $284,900 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

16. 2025-09-09
    listed $294,900 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,238
• − Property taxes: −$4,616
• − Insurance: −$2,336
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$8,953
• Taxable loss: −$10,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,632
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Kimberly

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #11415

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kimberly, AL
• Population (ZIP): 3,632

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.37%
• Current HPI: 265.4636
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $284,900 Zillow
• 2025-09-09 Listed $294,900 Zillow