2428 Foxtail Dr

Avon, IN 46168

$315,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,346/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$59
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-228/mo
• Annual: $-2,737/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (25.5% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#75 in IN, #4,686 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Avon Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #32 of 301 in IN (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Elementary School (math 63% / reading 40%, grade C-, #256 of 994 statewide, top 26%, 703 students, 51% FRL); Avon Middle School South (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C, #40 of 330 statewide, top 12%, 835 students, 44% FRL); Avon High School (math 44% / reading 76%, grade C+, #46 of 369 statewide, top 13%, 3,348 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 20% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Hendricks County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hendricks County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Avon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.