2428 Foxtail Dr · Avon, IN 46168

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2006 9,583 sqft lot $188/sqft · at area comps Est $332k · at est. $59/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming, move-in ready home in the highly desirable Settlement neighborhood in Avon! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home also features a dedicated office and a versatile bonus room or potential 4th bedroom, offering flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Step inside to an inviting open-concept layout with beautiful flooring throughout. The spacious great room boasts vaulted ceilings, creating a bright and airy feel, while the kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, ample counter space, a pantry, and plenty of storage-perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The main-level primary suite provides comfort and convenience, complete with a private ensuite b

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Dedicated office
• Versatile bonus room

Tags

• DEDICATED OFFICE
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mandatory fee ownership interest
• HOA & community: Homeowner association with quarterly fee; Quarterly HOA fee (amount provided); Community amenities include clubhouse, maintenance, park, playground, tennis courts, trails, snow removal and management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 440 sq ft)
• Utilities: Public water; Municipal sewer connected; 200+ amp electrical service; Cable, electricity, sewer and water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; East-facing
• Construction: Built by Arbor Homes; Vinyl with brick exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot under 1/4 acre (0.22 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave with hood; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total — one on the main level and two on the upper level; Upper level also includes an office and a bonus room
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on upper level); One half bath on the main level; Primary bathroom includes a full tub
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Avon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#75 in IN, #4,686 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Avon Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #32 of 301 in IN (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Elementary School (math 63% / reading 40%, grade C-, #256 of 994 statewide, top 26%, 703 students, 51% FRL); Avon Middle School South (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C, #40 of 330 statewide, top 12%, 835 students, 44% FRL); Avon High School (math 44% / reading 76%, grade C+, #46 of 369 statewide, top 13%, 3,348 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 20% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Hendricks County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hendricks County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,619 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,518
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -4.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2422 Solidago Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,779 (+6%)	4mo	$300,000	$169	78
2841 Piper Pl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,609 (-4%)	5mo	$325,000	$202	71
2226 Galleone Way	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-0%)	2mo	$365,000	$218	61
2206 Galleone Way	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-0%)	2mo	$387,000	$231	61
521 Seagrape Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-0%)	5mo	$377,000	$225	61
529 Regatta Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-0%)	6mo	$365,000	$218	60
8045 Melbourne Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,657 (-1%)	8mo	$309,900	$187	57
9136 Anthem Ave	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,722 (+3%)	8mo	$347,500	$202	56
2350 Trefoil Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-13%)	8mo	$301,500	$206	54
2271 Hampton Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-10%)	3mo	$270,000	$179	51
2253 Summerfield Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-10%)	3mo	$266,000	$177	49
545 Regatta Ln	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,915 (+14%)	1mo	$365,000	$191	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-64,049
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-68,151
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46168

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,873/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$59
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,635

Max offer price $274,708

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-139	+0% $-228	+5% $-317	+10% $-406
Rent	-10% $-413	-5% $-321	+0% $-228	+5% $-135	+10% $-43
Rate	-1.0pp $-69	-0.5pp $-148	base $-228	+0.5pp $-310	+1.0pp $-393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8325 Bluestem Ln Plainfield, IN	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,495	$1.16	23d	1	0.34mi
8151 Lupine Dr Plainfield, IN	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,450	$1.22	45d	1	0.43mi
9074 Anthem Ave Plainfield, IN	3.0	2.5	1722	$2,450	$1.42	0d	1	0.59mi
2514 Grand Central BLVD Cartersburg, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1324	$3,499	$2.64	0d	282	0.66mi
2870 Pearson Pkwy Plainfield, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,199	$2.40	19d	18	0.72mi
2155 Shadowbrook Dr Unit 1228635P Plainfield, IN	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,803	$1.80	0d	1	0.83mi
2145 Shadowbrook Dr Plainfield, IN	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,100	$1.49	4d	1	0.84mi
8140 Elsen Rdg Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,049	$1.36	23d	1	1.10mi
311 Harpers Xing Plainfield, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	882	$1,350	$1.53	13d	8	1.12mi
1995 Crown Plaza Blvd Plainfield, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$1,700	$1.84	0d	5	1.32mi
311 Country Ln Plainfield, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,700	$1.85	0d	9	1.32mi
8060 Clarks Creek Ct Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,125	$1.29	45d	1	1.34mi
8060 Clarks Creek Ct Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,125	$1.29	46d	1	1.34mi
584 Stone Table Blvd Plainfield, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1168	$2,295	$1.96	0d	5	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $59 · $708/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $315,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $315,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $315,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $315,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $315,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-04-23
   listed $315,000 Active 1315-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,873 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,873 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,873
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,252
• − Management: −$2,252
• − HOA: −$708
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$8,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,996
• After-tax cash flow: $-741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1800270
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $75,987
• Composite: 46.93/100
• National rank: #2362
• State rank: #32 of 301 in IN

Livability — Avon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #4686

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avon, IN
• County: Hendricks County · 143,373 people
• City population: 43,353
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,826
• Household income: $90,000
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1029.0

Population outlook (Hendricks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,418 people
• By 2030: 201,494 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 228,487 · +21.9%
• By 2050: 253,068 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 308,920 · +64.8%
• By 2100: 336,510 · +79.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hendricks

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.4% · R 59.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -23.4pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.23%
• Current HPI: 205.5963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $315,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,873 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.