127 Agnes Ave

Santa Maria, CA 93458

$3,500,000F

195 bd · 169.0 ba · 7,950 sqft · Built 1965 · MultiFamily · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $24,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,354
• Tax + insurance: −$3,401
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,128
• Net cashflow: $-2,462/mo
• Annual: $-29,549/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $980,000

Investor read

• This is a 13 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-30k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-189/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.07M (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.44M (30.2% below list).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.44M (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#202 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Maria-Bonita (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #1,023 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bruce (Robert) Elementary (951 students, 83% FRL); El Camino Junior High (779 students, 91% FRL); Pioneer Valley High (3,220 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.86M; list at $3.50M implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Santa Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $24,421/mo this rent would consume 389% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 2583% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?