27440 Winchester Dr

Spring Lake, FL 34602

$170,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,774/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $227/mo
• Annual: $2,722/yr
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.72%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#819 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.