27440 Winchester Dr · Spring Lake, FL 34602

$170,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1980 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

With over 1,800 square feet of living space this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom sits on a cleared 1-acre lot. This property has so much potential, so bring your ideas—it's ready for a transformation, and land is becoming rare, so grab this opportunity while you can and enjoy peaceful, country living away from the hustle and bustle of city life.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption present; Acreage zoning
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; North-facing
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Completed condition; Built on approximately 1 acre
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Wire fencing; Cleared lot; Oak trees on property; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom floor plan; 3 additional rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#819 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.72%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,072
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,330
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34602

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,549/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $275	+0% $227	+5% $179	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $157	+0% $227	+5% $297	+10% $367
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $270	base $227	+0.5pp $183	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,549 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,549 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,549
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $17
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4
• After-tax cash flow: $2,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Lake

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #819
• US rank: #19649

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,391

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.28%
• Current HPI: 282.3728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,549 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.