307 W Spruce St

Lockney, TX 79241

$109,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,285/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $305/mo
• Annual: $3,657/yr
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.98%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#297 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lockney ISD (rural): math 26% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #653 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.
• Floyd County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.