307 W Spruce St · Lockney, TX 79241

$109,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1994 6,120 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

More photos are coming SOON! Move-in ready and fully updated! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a fresh, modern feel with thoughtful updates throughout. The inviting covered front porch creates the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. Inside, you'll find a versatile flex room that can serve as a home office, formal dining area, playroom, or additional living space to fit your needs. The spacious laundry room and huge pantry provide exceptional storage and convenience. Outside, a covered 2-car carport adds even more functionality. Whether you're a first-time home buyer, downsizing, or searching for a great investment property, this beautifully update

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Huge pantry
• Flex room

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FLEX ROOM
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• HUGE PANTRY
• COVERED 2-CAR CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; Carport; Detached carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Porch; Wood fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric heating; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#297 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lockney ISD (rural): math 26% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #653 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Floyd County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,365 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.98%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $36,240
• Equity at exit: $52,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $97,348
• Equity at exit: $84,815

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79241

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,122/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $899

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $366	-5% $336	+0% $305	+5% $274	+10% $243
Rent	-10% $203	-5% $254	+0% $305	+5% $356	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $332	base $305	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $109,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,122 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$872/yr (+$73/mo · 77.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,122
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $2,011
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$483
• After-tax cash flow: $3,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827890
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,103
• Composite: 24.57/100
• National rank: #7639
• State rank: #653 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockney

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #6776

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockney, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,088

Population outlook (Floyd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,230 people
• By 2030: 4,928 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 4,374 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 3,860 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 2,737 · -47.7%
• By 2100: 1,304 · -75.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 37% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Floyd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.0) · D 17.1% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -41.8pp · 2024: -65.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.0 2020: R+56.2 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+46.6 2008: R+41.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Current HPI: 76.6336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $109,000 PARMLS
• 1998-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,122 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.