9541 Horseshoe Island Rd

Phoenix, NY 13041

$239,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,485/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$707
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $2/mo
• Annual: $29/yr
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($29/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $239k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#613 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Phoenix Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #416 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Michael A Maroun Elementary School (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,413 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 667 students, 58% FRL); Emerson J Dillon Middle School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #445 of 729 statewide, top 61%, 514 students, 60% FRL); John C Birdlebough High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 473 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 14 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $3k; list at $239k implies a 8286% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.9% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.