9541 Horseshoe Island Rd · Phoenix, NY 13041

$239,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1972 0.46 ac lot Est $380k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to beautiful fully renovated ranch style home on Horseshoe Island Rd. The main part of the house has a separate entrance and features 3 good size bedrooms, a full kitchen with Italian granite countertops, modern backsplash and stainless steel appliances. Full bathroom and dining area, spacious living room, large family room with vaulted ceiling and exposed beams that allows private access to the back yard through french doors. The home has an in-law apartment attached that features full eat-in kitchen, living room and a large bedroom with walk in closet and en-suite full bath with stand up shower. The apartment as well has access through french doors to spacious backyard. Both share mud room and laundry area. The property is completely updated including brand new roof, driveway, vinyl windows, high efficiency furnace, central AC, vinyl siding and more! Perfect location in the desirable community of scenic Horseshoe Island

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 53 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($29/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $232k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.9% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#613 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Phoenix Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #416 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Michael A Maroun Elementary School (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,413 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 667 students, 58% FRL); Emerson J Dillon Middle School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #445 of 729 statewide, top 61%, 514 students, 60% FRL); John C Birdlebough High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 473 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $3k; list at $239k implies a 8286% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $380,160
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9541 Horseshoe Island Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,112 (0%)	1mo	$254,000	$120	100
9545 Horseshoe Island Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,276 (+8%)	9mo	$410,000	$180	73
9470 Horseshoe Island Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-4%)	22mo	$485,000	$241	49
63 Shady Elm Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,130 (+1%)	23mo	$350,000	$164	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-38,346
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,269
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13041

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$552 /mo · $6,624/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,482

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $70	+0% $2	+5% $-65	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-96	+0% $2	+5% $101	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $63	base $2	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-29
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-05
   listed $239,000 Active
4. 2026-02-05
   historical
5. 2026-02-04
   status Active
6. 2025-10-22
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2025-10-02
   listed $239,000 Active
8. 2024-06-16
   historical $2,600
9. 2024-05-29
   listed $2,600
10. 2023-10-14
    soldstatus $2,850 Closed Sale or Rented 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Welcome to beautiful fully renovated ranch style home on Horseshoe Island Rd. The main part of the house has a separate entrance and features 3 good size bedrooms, a full kitchen with Italian granite countertops, modern backsplash and stainless steel appliances. Full bathroom and dining area, spacious living room, large family room with vaulted ceiling and exposed beams that allows private access to the back yard through french doors. The home has an in-law apartment attached that features full eat-in kitchen, living room and a large bedroom with walk in closet and en-suite full bath with stand up shower. The apartment as well has access through french doors to spacious backyard. Both share mud room and laundry area. The property is completely updated including brand new roof, driveway, vinyl windows, high efficiency furnace, central AC, vinyl siding and more! Perfect location in the desirable community of scenic Horseshoe Island

11. 2023-09-26
    price $220,000 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Welcome to beautiful fully renovated ranch style home on Horseshoe Island Rd. The main part of the house has a separate entrance and features 3 good size bedrooms, a full kitchen with Italian granite countertops, modern backsplash and stainless steel appliances. Full bathroom and dining area, spacious living room, large family room with vaulted ceiling and exposed beams that allows private access to the back yard through french doors. The home has an in-law apartment attached that features full eat-in kitchen, living room and a large bedroom with walk in closet and en-suite full bath with stand up shower. The apartment as well has access through french doors to spacious backyard. Both share mud room and laundry area. The property is completely updated including brand new roof, driveway, vinyl windows, high efficiency furnace, central AC, vinyl siding and more! Perfect location in the desirable community of scenic Horseshoe Island

12. 2023-09-11
    price $230,000 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Welcome to beautiful fully renovated ranch style home on Horseshoe Island Rd. The main part of the house has a separate entrance and features 3 good size bedrooms, a full kitchen with Italian granite countertops, modern backsplash and stainless steel appliances. Full bathroom and dining area, spacious living room, large family room with vaulted ceiling and exposed beams that allows private access to the back yard through french doors. The home has an in-law apartment attached that features full eat-in kitchen, living room and a large bedroom with walk in closet and en-suite full bath with stand up shower. The apartment as well has access through french doors to spacious backyard. Both share mud room and laundry area. The property is completely updated including brand new roof, driveway, vinyl windows, high efficiency furnace, central AC, vinyl siding and more! Perfect location in the desirable community of scenic Horseshoe Island

13. 2023-07-31
    listed $250,000 Active 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Welcome to beautiful fully renovated ranch style home on Horseshoe Island Rd. The main part of the house has a separate entrance and features 3 good size bedrooms, a full kitchen with Italian granite countertops, modern backsplash and stainless steel appliances. Full bathroom and dining area, spacious living room, large family room with vaulted ceiling and exposed beams that allows private access to the back yard through french doors. The home has an in-law apartment attached that features full eat-in kitchen, living room and a large bedroom with walk in closet and en-suite full bath with stand up shower. The apartment as well has access through french doors to spacious backyard. Both share mud room and laundry area. The property is completely updated including brand new roof, driveway, vinyl windows, high efficiency furnace, central AC, vinyl siding and more! Perfect location in the desirable community of scenic Horseshoe Island

14. 2021-10-13
    historical
15. 2021-09-14
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
16. 2021-08-16
    price $179,900
17. 2021-06-15
    listed $189,900 Active
18. 2020-10-12
    historical
19. 2020-08-11
    listed $173,000 Active
20. 2019-12-07
    historical
21. 2019-09-17
    listed $159,900 Active
22. 2018-07-22
    historical
23. 2018-07-15
    listed $134,900 Active
24. 2018-06-29
    historical
25. 2018-06-04
    price $133,000
26. 2018-05-22
    price $134,500
27. 2018-05-01
    listed $135,000 Active
28. 2018-04-30
    historical
29. 2018-04-05
    price $135,000
30. 2018-01-31
    listed $137,000 Active
31. 2017-10-31
    historical
32. 2017-10-18
    price $137,000
33. 2017-09-04
    listed $139,950 Active
34. 2017-03-16
    historical
35. 2017-03-03
    listed $149,995 Active
36. 2013-06-18
    historical
37. 2013-06-01
    soldstatus $1,850
38. 2013-05-08
    listed $1,850
39. 2012-12-11
    soldstatus $13,500
40. 2012-12-11
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,624 · $552/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,624 · $552/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$6,624
• − Insurance: −$1,862
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,385
• − Management: −$2,385
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$907
• After-tax cash flow: $936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622920
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,419
• Composite: 41.34/100
• National rank: #3500
• State rank: #416 of 590 in NY

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 20,185
• Population (ZIP): 12,094

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.12%
• Current HPI: 326.7838
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1670.4% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-29 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $239,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-10-22 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $239,000 CNYIS
• 2024-06-16 Rental Removed $2,600 BUILDIUM
• 2024-05-29 Listed for Rent $2,600 BUILDIUM
• 2023-10-14 Sold (MLS) $2,850 CNYIS
• 2023-09-26 Price Changed $220,000 CNYIS
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $230,000 CNYIS
• 2023-07-31 Listed $250,000 CNYIS
• 2021-10-13 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-09-14 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2021-08-16 Price Changed $179,900 CNYIS
• 2021-06-15 Listed $189,900 CNYIS
• 2020-10-12 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2020-08-11 Listed $173,000 CNYIS
• 2019-12-07 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-09-17 Listed $159,900 CNYIS
• 2018-07-22 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-07-15 Listed $134,900 CNYIS
• 2018-06-29 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-06-04 Price Changed $133,000 CNYIS
• 2018-05-22 Price Changed $134,500 CNYIS
• 2018-05-01 Listed $135,000 CNYIS
• 2018-04-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-04-05 Price Changed $135,000 CNYIS
• 2018-01-31 Listed $137,000 CNYIS
• 2017-10-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-10-18 Price Changed $137,000 CNYIS
• 2017-09-04 Listed $139,950 CNYIS
• 2017-03-16 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-03-03 Listed $149,995 CNYIS
• 2013-06-18 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2013-06-01 Sold (MLS) $1,850 WNYREIS
• 2013-05-08 Listed $1,850 WNYREIS
• 2012-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 2012-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,624 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.