303 W Dewey Ave

Orange, TX 77630

$199,000D

9 bd · 0.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · Built 1941 · Other · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,399/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 9-bed/?-bath other listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?