903 S Michigan Ave

Saginaw, MI 48602

$77,700B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,729 sqft · Built 1927 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$407
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $376/mo
• Annual: $4,512/yr
• Cap rate: 12.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.74%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $21,756

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $537 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Merrill Park Elementary School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,325 of 1,397 statewide, top 99%, 321 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 76% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 5% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Saginaw School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.