16617 Main St

Town Creek, AL 35672

$30,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,201 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 1177 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,012/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $592/mo
• Annual: $7,103/yr
• Cap rate: 29.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.56%
• DSCR: 4.76
• 1% rule: 3.37%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $592 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 1177 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#192 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County (rural): math 14% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #85 of 129 in AL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hatton High School (math 9% / reading 29%, grade F, #181 of 305 statewide, top 60%, 543 students, 60% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 1177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: ceiling — Collapsing in one room.
• Major: floors — Collapsed in another room.
• Major: septic system — Needs to be pumped.
• Major: heating system — No central unit, only gas heater.
• Major: foundation — Issues present.
• Major: water supply — Water off.