Northwood SW 18A Arbor Estates Plan

Plumsteadville, PA 18902

$115,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 940 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 236 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $924/mo
• Annual: $11,092/yr
• Cap rate: 15.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.45%
• DSCR: 2.53
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $924 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#304 in PA, #2,685 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Central Bucks SD (suburban): math 55% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #37 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Groveland El Sch (math 47% / reading 69%, grade C+, #430 of 1,518 statewide, top 29%, 811 students, 21% FRL); Tohickon Ms (math 34% / reading 72%, grade C+, #90 of 512 statewide, top 19%, 839 students, 16% FRL); Central Bucks Hs-East (math 93%, 1,365 students, 7% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 1.8% in Plumsteadville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($161k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.