Northwood SW 18A Arbor Estates Plan · Plumsteadville, PA 18902

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 940 sqft · Manufactured · 236 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Arbor Estates in Doylestown, PA is a UMH Properties, Inc. community that offers a peaceful home setting in a vibrant neighborhood. These homes are thoughtfully designed with full kitchen appliance packages, front and back decks, and double pane windows to accommodate a range of buying or rental preferences. Whether you are looking for a rental or a home to buy, our community offers a variety of amenities such as a basketball court, playground, and bus shelter for all our residents to use; enjoy all the Arbor Estates has to offer. If you are looking for a home customized to your needs with access to fun activities, community atmosphere, and vast opportunities, Arbor Estates is the community for you. All that is keeping you from the home you've been looking for is one call to Arbor Estates! Located in the heart of Bucks County, Arbor Estates community is just 35 miles north of Philadelphia. No matter your preference, Arbor Estates has something in the Doylestown area for you. Our community is situated near parks, lakes, and a variety of outdoor activities for nature lovers of all kinds. A short drive from the Arbor Estates community will place you right in the heart of city life, with entertainment, shopping, delicious restaurants, gym options, and access to healthcare and further education opportunities. With easy access to Mercer Museum and Delaware Valley University, you will find yourself close to an abundance of shopping and entertainment options at this eastern Pennsylvania location. Create lasting memories with your friends and loved ones while visiting one of the several wonderful parks and lakes nearby, taking in Doylestown entertainment, or simply staying in for the night in your comfortable home. Our manufactured home community is the ideal affordable option in Doylestown with a great location, friendly onsite staff and five star amenities. Located in the Central Bucks Schools District.

Key facts

• Double pane windows
• Basketball court
• Lakes

Tags

• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• BASKETBALL COURT
• PLAYGROUND
• PARKS
• LAKES
• GYM OPTIONS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $924 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 1.7% in Plumsteadville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#304 in PA, #2,685 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Central Bucks SD (suburban): math 55% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #37 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Groveland El Sch (math 47% / reading 69%, grade C+, #430 of 1,518 statewide, top 29%, 811 students, 21% FRL); Tohickon Ms (math 34% / reading 72%, grade C+, #90 of 512 statewide, top 19%, 839 students, 16% FRL); Central Bucks Hs-East (math 93%, 1,365 students, 7% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($161k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.45%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $40,269
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $111,004
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18902

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $924

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,004	-5% $964	+0% $924	+5% $885	+10% $845
Rent	-10% $752	-5% $838	+0% $924	+5% $1,010	+10% $1,096
Rate	-1.0pp $982	-0.5pp $954	base $924	+0.5pp $895	+1.0pp $864

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4844 Old Easton Rd Unit 2 Doylestown, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	45d	1	0.62mi
3617 Ferry Rd Apt 3 Fountainville, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	26d	1	1.39mi
3617 Ferry Rd Apt 1 FIRST FLOOR Fountainville, PA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 215 DOM
15. 2025-12-05
    status Active 1929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1929 chars)

    Arbor Estates in Doylestown, PA is a UMH Properties, Inc. community that offers a peaceful home setting in a vibrant neighborhood. These homes are thoughtfully designed with full kitchen appliance packages, front and back decks, and double pane windows to accommodate a range of buying or rental preferences. Whether you are looking for a rental or a home to buy, our community offers a variety of amenities such as a basketball court, playground, and bus shelter for all our residents to use; enjoy all the Arbor Estates has to offer. If you are looking for a home customized to your needs with access to fun activities, community atmosphere, and vast opportunities, Arbor Estates is the community for you. All that is keeping you from the home you've been looking for is one call to Arbor Estates! Located in the heart of Bucks County, Arbor Estates community is just 35 miles north of Philadelphia. No matter your preference, Arbor Estates has something in the Doylestown area for you. Our community is situated near parks, lakes, and a variety of outdoor activities for nature lovers of all kinds. A short drive from the Arbor Estates community will place you right in the heart of city life, with entertainment, shopping, delicious restaurants, gym options, and access to healthcare and further education opportunities. With easy access to Mercer Museum and Delaware Valley University, you will find yourself close to an abundance of shopping and entertainment options at this eastern Pennsylvania location. Create lasting memories with your friends and loved ones while visiting one of the several wonderful parks and lakes nearby, taking in Doylestown entertainment, or simply staying in for the night in your comfortable home. Our manufactured home community is the ideal affordable option in Doylestown with a great location, friendly onsite staff and five star amenities. Located in the Central Bucks Schools District.

16. 2025-12-04
    historical 1929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1929 chars)

    Arbor Estates in Doylestown, PA is a UMH Properties, Inc. community that offers a peaceful home setting in a vibrant neighborhood. These homes are thoughtfully designed with full kitchen appliance packages, front and back decks, and double pane windows to accommodate a range of buying or rental preferences. Whether you are looking for a rental or a home to buy, our community offers a variety of amenities such as a basketball court, playground, and bus shelter for all our residents to use; enjoy all the Arbor Estates has to offer. If you are looking for a home customized to your needs with access to fun activities, community atmosphere, and vast opportunities, Arbor Estates is the community for you. All that is keeping you from the home you've been looking for is one call to Arbor Estates! Located in the heart of Bucks County, Arbor Estates community is just 35 miles north of Philadelphia. No matter your preference, Arbor Estates has something in the Doylestown area for you. Our community is situated near parks, lakes, and a variety of outdoor activities for nature lovers of all kinds. A short drive from the Arbor Estates community will place you right in the heart of city life, with entertainment, shopping, delicious restaurants, gym options, and access to healthcare and further education opportunities. With easy access to Mercer Museum and Delaware Valley University, you will find yourself close to an abundance of shopping and entertainment options at this eastern Pennsylvania location. Create lasting memories with your friends and loved ones while visiting one of the several wonderful parks and lakes nearby, taking in Doylestown entertainment, or simply staying in for the night in your comfortable home. Our manufactured home community is the ideal affordable option in Doylestown with a great location, friendly onsite staff and five star amenities. Located in the Central Bucks Schools District.

17. 2025-10-28
    listed $115,000 Active 1929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1929 chars)

    Arbor Estates in Doylestown, PA is a UMH Properties, Inc. community that offers a peaceful home setting in a vibrant neighborhood. These homes are thoughtfully designed with full kitchen appliance packages, front and back decks, and double pane windows to accommodate a range of buying or rental preferences. Whether you are looking for a rental or a home to buy, our community offers a variety of amenities such as a basketball court, playground, and bus shelter for all our residents to use; enjoy all the Arbor Estates has to offer. If you are looking for a home customized to your needs with access to fun activities, community atmosphere, and vast opportunities, Arbor Estates is the community for you. All that is keeping you from the home you've been looking for is one call to Arbor Estates! Located in the heart of Bucks County, Arbor Estates community is just 35 miles north of Philadelphia. No matter your preference, Arbor Estates has something in the Doylestown area for you. Our community is situated near parks, lakes, and a variety of outdoor activities for nature lovers of all kinds. A short drive from the Arbor Estates community will place you right in the heart of city life, with entertainment, shopping, delicious restaurants, gym options, and access to healthcare and further education opportunities. With easy access to Mercer Museum and Delaware Valley University, you will find yourself close to an abundance of shopping and entertainment options at this eastern Pennsylvania location. Create lasting memories with your friends and loved ones while visiting one of the several wonderful parks and lakes nearby, taking in Doylestown entertainment, or simply staying in for the night in your comfortable home. Our manufactured home community is the ideal affordable option in Doylestown with a great location, friendly onsite staff and five star amenities. Located in the Central Bucks Schools District.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $9,847
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,363
• After-tax cash flow: $8,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home in Arbor Estates is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters looking for a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Bucks SD
• NCES district ID: 4205310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $97,513
• Composite: 58.05/100
• National rank: #1032
• State rank: #37 of 539 in PA

Livability — Plumsteadville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #2685

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bucks County · 506,477 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 22,898
• Household income: $161,267
• Rent vs Own: 7.7% rent · 92.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 82.0

Population outlook (Bucks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 630,973 people
• By 2030: 627,093 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 609,680 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 584,225 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 539,840 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 483,970 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bucks

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -0.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.1 2020: D+4.4 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+1.2 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.39%
• Current HPI: 292.9825
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-28 Listed $115,000 Zillow