414 Pine Grove Ln

Hartsdale, NY 10530

$749,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,853 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,318/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax + insurance: −$1,100
• HOA: −$1,025
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,537
• Net cashflow: $-271/mo
• Annual: $-3,258/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $209,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $749k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $701k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $732k (2.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($738k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $701k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#94 in NY, #1,430 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Greenburgh Central School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #267 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Early Childhood Program (128 students, 0% FRL); Woodlands Middle/High School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C, #887 of 1,100 statewide, top 82%, 681 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.