414 Pine Grove Ln · Hartsdale, NY 10530

$749,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,853 sqft · Townhouse · 22 Days on market

Built 1986 436 sqft lot Est $947k · 21% under $1025/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious three-bed, three-bath three-level townhouse in the sought-after gated community of Stone Oaks. Offering over 2,800 square feet in this gated community, this elegant residence combines privacy, convenience, and comfort in a serene cul-de-sac setting at a steal of a price. The main level features hardwood floors, an expansive living room with a fireplace and sliding glass doors leading to a private deck, and a formal dining area perfect for entertaining. The eat-in kitchen with ample cabinetry, open to a sunlit breakfast atrium. Additional highlights include a den, powder room, laundry room and direct access to a two-car garage. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes custom c

Key facts

• Private deck
• Clubhouse
• Community amenities

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• SUNLIT BREAKFAST ATRIUM
• CUSTOM CLOSETS
• FULLY FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $749k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $701k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $732k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $701k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#94 in NY, #1,430 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Greenburgh Central School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #267 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Early Childhood Program (128 students, 0% FRL); Woodlands Middle/High School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C, #887 of 1,100 statewide, top 82%, 681 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($738k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $701,042 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $947,196
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 Pine Grove Ln	0.02mi	3/3.5	2,800 (-2%)	8mo	$930,000	$332	86
428 Pine Grove Ln	0.12mi	3/3.5	2,781 (-2%)	5mo	$1,124,000	$404	82
145 Stone Oaks Dr	0.05mi	3/3.5	2,902 (+2%)	24mo	$900,000	$310	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-138,012
• Equity at exit: $111,678

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-139,807
• Equity at exit: $64,760

Cash invested: $209,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10530

• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,318 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax from tax record: −$787 /mo · $9,449/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$1,025
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,537
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,661

Max offer price $701,042

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $-59	+0% $-271	+5% $-483	+10% $-695
Rent	-10% $-850	-5% $-561	+0% $-271	+5% $18	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $-81	base $-271	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,250
• Closing costs: $22,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Primrose Ave W White Plains, NY	4.0	2.5	2717	$8,550	$3.15	3d	1	0.71mi
12 Francine Ct White Plains, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$6,800	$3.40	16d	1	1.02mi
82 Quinby Ave White Plains, NY	4.0	1.5	2350	$6,000	$2.55	0d	1	1.34mi
107 Winding Ridge Rd #107 White Plains, NY	4.0	3.5	3000	$7,500	$2.50	25d	1	1.43mi
23 Poplar St Elmsford, NY	4.0	4.0	2875	$7,500	$2.61	18d	1	1.46mi
25 Crosshill Rd Hartsdale, NY	4.0	3.0	3972	$5,800	$1.46	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,025 · $12,300/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-10-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-23
   listed $749,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,449 · $787/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,054 · $921/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,604/yr (+$134/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $87,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,956
• − Property taxes: −$9,449
• − Insurance: −$3,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,025
• − Management: −$7,025
• − HOA: −$12,300
• − Depreciation: −$21,789
• Taxable loss: −$15,478
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,715
• After-tax cash flow: $457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenburgh Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612720
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $93,626
• Composite: 49.43/100
• National rank: #2005
• State rank: #267 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hartsdale

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #1430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 61,281
• Population (ZIP): 13,955

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -616.16%
• Current HPI: 320.7324
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-16 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed $749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,449 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.