Chappell Plan

Hutto, TX 78634

$236,249F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$492
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-578/mo
• Annual: $-6,934/yr
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.40%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $82,586

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-578 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hutto El (math 33% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 744 students, 36% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1264 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.