Chappell Plan · Hutto, TX 78634

$236,249

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Secondary bedrooms
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $236,249 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,948.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-578 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hutto El (math 33% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 744 students, 36% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1264 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,870 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.40%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,948
• List price: $236,249
• Delta: -19.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Meadowside Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+10%)	6mo	$270,000	$204	68
208 Meadowside Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,034 (-14%)	12mo	$290,000	$280	61
103 Canley Loop	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+6%)	2mo	$276,500	$217	54
312 Luna Vista Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,222 (+2%)	14mo	$285,000	$233	54
205 Wold Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	20mo	$269,000	$224	50
6007 Lone Star Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+13%)	3mo	$270,000	$200	49
4016 Kerley Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+13%)	5mo	$275,000	$203	47
115 Legends Of Hutto Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+14%)	18mo	$326,500	$239	37
503 N Fm 1660 Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,132 (-6%)	15mo	$260,000	$230	35
4017 Kerley Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+13%)	24mo	$323,800	$238	32
109 W Live Oak St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-7%)	22mo	$350,000	$313	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-89,988
• Equity at exit: $43,978

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-146,574
• Equity at exit: $25,502

Cash invested: $82,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.4 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $285,749 ($209/sqft)
• Median days on market: 137 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +17.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78634

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 1264
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,424/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $211,333

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-374	-5% $-476	+0% $-578	+5% $-680	+10% $-782
Rent	-10% $-724	-5% $-651	+0% $-578	+5% $-505	+10% $-432
Rate	-1.0pp $-429	-0.5pp $-503	base $-578	+0.5pp $-654	+1.0pp $-732

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,737
• Closing costs: $8,848
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Harvest Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	93d	1	0.05mi
322 Meadowside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1009	$1,750	$1.73	34d	1	0.08mi
110 Meadowside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	991	$1,500	$1.51	93d	1	0.18mi
202 Evans St Unit 1 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.5	1084	$1,550	$1.43	13d	1	0.27mi
202 Lucky Clover Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,800	$1.23	93d	1	0.43mi
318 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,900	$1.33	53d	1	0.54mi
111 Mossy Rock Cv Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,850	$1.27	41d	1	0.55mi
111 Mossy Rock Cv Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,850	$1.27	34d	1	0.55mi
401 County Road 199 Hutto, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1013	$2,494	$2.46	9d	74	0.63mi
311 Gainer Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,795	$1.21	13d	1	0.63mi
311 Gainer Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,895	$1.28	29d	1	0.63mi
106 Co-Op Blvd Hutto, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	884	$2,250	$2.55	13d	34	0.71mi
137 Easy St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,800	$1.21	62d	1	0.74mi
132 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$5,925	$4.63	22d	1	0.74mi
132 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$4,800	$3.75	67d	1	0.74mi
1011 Iola Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,708	$1.49	73d	1	0.79mi
104 Easy St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,950	$1.32	9d	1	0.89mi
550 Exchange Blvd Hutto, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	808	$1,640	$2.03	9d	26	0.93mi
318 Durango Downs Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,850	$1.41	93d	1	0.93mi
106 Marvin Cv Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,399	$1.40	47d	1	0.93mi
111 David Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,850	$1.32	52d	1	0.96mi
412 Ballentine Ct Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,635	$1.44	93d	1	0.96mi
609 Losoya Ct Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	41d	1	0.98mi
112 Creekside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1352	$1,875	$1.39	67d	1	0.99mi
406 Ballentine Ct Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,700	$1.25	17d	1	0.99mi
900 Main St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	21d	1	1.01mi
120 Oakdale Meadows Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,195	$1.47	36d	1	1.01mi
111 Quail Hollow Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1394	$1,995	$1.43	52d	1	1.03mi
111 Quail Hollow Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1394	$1,650	$1.18	17d	1	1.03mi
309 Paige Bnd Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,825	$1.30	28d	1	1.05mi
1051 N Farm to Market 1660 Unit 116 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,375	$1.25	93d	1	1.10mi
1051 N Farm to Market 1660 Unit B1 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	93d	1	1.10mi
1051 FM 1660 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	67d	1	1.10mi
201 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,950	$1.37	93d	1	1.13mi
202 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,700	$1.19	71d	1	1.14mi
551 Exchange Blvd Hutto, TX	3.0	3.0	1250	$2,820	$2.26	9d	28	1.15mi
1051 N Farm to Market 1660 Unit 03-1102 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,449	$1.32	73d	1	1.17mi
201 County Road 137 Hutto, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1178	$1,675	$1.42	9d	6	1.33mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $236,249 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $236,249 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $236,249 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $236,249 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $236,249 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $236,249 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $236,249 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $236,249 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $236,249 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $236,249 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $236,249 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $236,249 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $236,249 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $236,249 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $236,249 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $236,249 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $236,249 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $236,249 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $235,499 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $235,499 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $235,499 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $235,499 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $235,499 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    price $235,499 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $236,499 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $236,499 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $236,499 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    price $236,499 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $235,499 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $235,499 Active 137 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $235,499 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $234,749 Active 135 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $234,749 Active 134 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    price $234,749 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $233,999 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $233,999 Active 132 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $233,999 Active 131 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $233,999 Active 130 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $233,999 Active 128 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $233,999 Active 126 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $233,999 Active 125 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $233,999 Active 122 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $233,999 Active 121 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $233,999 Active 120 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $233,999 Active 119 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $233,999 Active 117 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $233,499 Active 113 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $233,499 Active 112 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $233,499 Active 111 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $233,499 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,522
• − Property taxes: −$4,424
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$8,580
• Taxable loss: −$12,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,968
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,000–$18,000 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, with updates in the kitchen and bathrooms, HVAC, and smart home features likely to significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can significantly increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can enhance the home's appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and attract a broader range of potential buyers/tenants, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hutto El F TX #1,651/4,322 Nat'l #20,819/41,679 Middle Farley Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Hutto H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Hutto

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2794

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hutto, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 46,413
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,413
• Household income: $114,426
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.56%
• Current HPI: 194.2221
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $232,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $235,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $239,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $239,990 Zillow