37622 New Horizons Blvd

Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$198,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Pending · 443 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,041
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$66
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $178/mo
• Annual: $2,133/yr
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $55,580

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (6.8% below list).
• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.