37622 New Horizons Blvd · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$198,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Manufactured public records · 443 Days on market

Built 1997 6,066 sqft lot Est $162k · 22% over $66/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. BRAND NEW A/C and all new ductwork! 2025 Roof and Carport! Welcome to Grand Horizons! Experience unparalleled elegance and comfort in this immaculate, fully furnished home, with recent upgrades abound. The spacious living area, bathed in natural light, creates a warm and inviting ambiance perfect for relaxation and entertaining. The interior of this residence has been meticulously maintained, showcasing a thoughtful design and attention to detail. The kitchen is a culinary dream, featuring state-of-the-art appliances, elegant cabinetry, and ample counter space. Whether you're preparing intimate meals or festive feasts, the adjacent dining area offers

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Elegant cabinetry
• Carport

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• CARPORT
• STATE-OF-THE-ART APPLIANCES
• ELEGANT CABINETRY
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• ELECTRIC WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs OK, breed restrictions, number limit); max pet weight 40 lbs
• Financial info: Total annual HOA/fees approximately $798
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $66.50; Association amenities include gated entry, pool and shuffleboard court; Association fee covers common area taxes, pool and private road; Association name: Brian; Association fee is required; Senior community; Community features: clubhouse, pool; golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway; Oversized parking; 1-car carport
• Security: Located in gated community; Security system (owned); Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Home faces north; Accessible approach with ramp; Accessible bedroom, kitchen and central living area
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Private maintained road; Asphalt/paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone countertops; Solid wood cabinets; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Exhaust fan; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Solid wood cabinets; Stone countertops; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Skylights; Double-pane windows; Shades
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37652 New Horizons Blvd	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,396 (+7%)	3mo	$240,000	$172	84
37635 Gill Ave	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,407 (+7%)	3mo	$217,000	$154	79
37501 Campo Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-1%)	2mo	$140,000	$108	76
37510 New Horizons Blvd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+14%)	2mo	$215,000	$144	65
7109 EL Matador St	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,332 (+2%)	9mo	$128,000	$96	63
37539 Rio Ln	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+3%)	14mo	$175,000	$130	62
37533 Rio Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-1%)	14mo	$145,500	$112	60
37551 Gill Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+14%)	9mo	$235,000	$158	58
37526 Rio Ln	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,448 (+10%)	3mo	$180,000	$124	57
7131 EL Dewitt St	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+10%)	6mo	$150,000	$104	53
37611 Amigo Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,196 (-9%)	14mo	$140,000	$117	46
37838 Barcelona Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,128 (-14%)	4mo	$136,000	$121	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,294
• Equity at exit: $29,597

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,379
• Equity at exit: $17,163

Cash invested: $55,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,041
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,129/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$66
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,625

Max offer price $198,500

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $234	+0% $178	+5% $122	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $105	+0% $178	+5% $251	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $228	base $178	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,625
• Closing costs: $5,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,970	$1.83	0d	33	0.46mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	5d	1	0.72mi
8313 Wheat Stone Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,275	$1.22	25d	1	0.96mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	25d	1	1.14mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	25d	1	1.20mi
7064 Ripple Pond Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,047	$1.15	15d	1	1.25mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	25d	1	1.25mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	25d	1	1.29mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	21d	1	1.32mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	25d	1	1.37mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	25d	1	1.38mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	25d	1	1.38mi
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	1.39mi
6249 Maisai Rd #6 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1561	$1,550	$0.99	3d	1	1.39mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	2d	142	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $66 · $792/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   price $198,500
3. 2025-12-30
   status Active
4. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-11
   price $199,000
6. 2025-09-17
   price $213,000
7. 2025-06-22
   status Active
8. 2025-06-21
   historical
9. 2025-04-14
   price $223,000
10. 2025-02-01
    listed $230,000 Active
11. 2024-11-04
    historical
12. 2024-09-11
    price $234,000
13. 2024-07-17
    listed $240,000 Active
14. 2024-07-03
    historical
15. 2024-04-03
    status Active
16. 2023-12-11
    status Pending
17. 2023-11-22
    status Active
18. 2023-11-22
    price $239,999
19. 2023-10-25
    status Pending
20. 2023-10-03
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,129 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,648 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$519/yr (+$43/mo · 46.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,129
• − Insurance: −$992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − HOA: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$5,775
• Taxable loss: −$1,160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$278
• After-tax cash flow: $2,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $198,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $213,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $223,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-01 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $234,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-17 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-22 Price Changed $239,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-03 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,129 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.