3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,354 sqft ·
Built 1913
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 156 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,800/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,075
Tax + insurance
−$279
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$378
Net cashflow
$69/mo
Annual
$827/yr
Cap rate
6.70%
Cash-on-cash
1.44%
DSCR
1.06
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$57,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($827/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (12.2% below list).
It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $180k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#39 in MN, #1,102 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
New Ulm Public School District (town): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary (math 47% / reading 39%, grade F, #574 of 857 statewide, top 67%, 619 students, 40% FRL); Washington Learning Center (188 students, 47% FRL); New Ulm High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B, #19 of 471 statewide, top 4%, 706 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 21% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 41 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
Brown County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $118k; list at $205k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in New Ulm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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