7338 Black Walnut Way

Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202

$199,900D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 2007 · Townhouse · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,174/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$563
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-223/mo
• Annual: $-2,673/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (19.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Braden River Elementary School (math 76% / reading 64%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 568 students, 40% FRL); Braden River Middle School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 810 students, 58% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.