7338 Black Walnut Way · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202

$199,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,064 sqft · Townhouse public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2007 Est $215k · 7% under $563/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakewood Ranch at this price! Upgraded Townhouse in Gated Community of Willowbrook. Great location close to Town Center and quick access to I75. Wet bar in garage with built in cabinets with outside access to patio and rear yard. Tandum parking garage, balconies on all levels. Great view of greenbelt. Home features dark wood floors with matching cabinets. Breakfast bar and built in cabinets in Dining area. Living room opens to 2nd floor balcony. Each bedroom offer ensuite bath and 3rd floor utility room. Tub and shower combinations, wood cabinets in baths. Move in ready home with crown molding accents, tray ceilings and recessed lights. Do not forget the 3rd floor balcony for a bird's eye view. Lakewood Ranch is considered one of the top communities in the USA. Close to shopping, fine dining, sports complexes and more. Electronic gates and community pool all with low fees. Please note seller willing to discuss private financing options or a lease purchase. Ready to be moved in.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Screened balcony
• Screened lanai

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL FACILITY
• SCREENED LANAI
• TRANQUIL NATURE PRESERVE
• PICTURESQUE VIEWS
• SCREENED BALCONY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption claimed
• Financial info: Total monthly fees / condo fees: $563; Total annual fees: $6,756; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Holmes Beach Manangement (monthly condo/association fees $563); Association approval required; Association fee includes cable TV, pool, escrow reserves, structure and grounds maintenance, private road maintenance, trash; Community features: Deed restrictions, community pool; Pets allowed (cats and dogs), max pet weight ~40 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Tandem 2-car garage
• Security: Fire sprinkler system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Faces north; Located on first floor (unit on floor 1)
• Construction: Block, stucco and frame construction; Metal and shingle roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Patio; Porch; Balcony; Gunite pool; Pond view; Greenbelt; Street dead-end; Oak trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Dry bar; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Tray ceilings; Window treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (inside); Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (19.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Braden River Elementary School (math 76% / reading 64%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 568 students, 40% FRL); Braden River Middle School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 810 students, 58% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,556 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9026 White Sage Loop #9026	0.09mi	2/2.5	1,064 (0%)	1mo	$210,000	$197	95
8666 Majestic Elm Ct #8666	0.13mi	2/2.5	1,064 (0%)	3mo	$185,000	$174	91
8827 White Sage Loop	0.10mi	2/2.5	1,064 (0%)	5mo	$215,000	$202	91
9038 White Sage Loop	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,092 (+3%)	1mo	$215,000	$197	91
8841 White Sage Loop #8841	0.12mi	2/2.5	1,064 (0%)	4mo	$185,000	$174	91
8614 Majestic Elm Ct	0.15mi	2/2.5	1,092 (+3%)	3mo	$225,000	$206	87
7424 Vista Way #104	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,048 (-2%)	2mo	$239,900	$229	76
8905 Manor Loop #205	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	1mo	$260,000	$241	74
8933 Manor Loop #205	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	2mo	$215,000	$199	70
7428 Vista Way #207	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	6mo	$210,000	$194	70
8821 Manor Loop #101	0.48mi	2/2.0	996 (-6%)	3mo	$220,000	$221	62
8932 Manor Loop #105	0.55mi	2/2.0	996 (-6%)	3mo	$225,000	$226	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,017
• Equity at exit: $46,353

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-59,131
• Equity at exit: $47,073

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34202

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,943/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$563
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,456

Max offer price $160,556

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-110	-5% $-166	+0% $-223	+5% $-279	+10% $-336
Rent	-10% $-394	-5% $-309	+0% $-223	+5% $-137	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-122	-0.5pp $-172	base $-223	+0.5pp $-275	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7350 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,995	$1.88	25d	1	0.04mi
7341 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	25d	1	0.05mi
8808 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$2,300	$2.11	25d	1	0.07mi
8828 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,975	$1.81	5d	1	0.09mi
8809 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$2,200	$2.07	13d	1	0.09mi
8858 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,900	$1.79	5d	1	0.16mi
7411 Vista Way #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	25d	1	0.35mi
7417 Vista Way #105 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,775	$1.45	25d	1	0.36mi
7405 Vista Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$2,000	$1.51	25d	1	0.38mi
8911 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,950	$1.31	23d	1	0.42mi
7428 Vista Way #105 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,900	$1.55	25d	1	0.45mi
8917 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,150	$1.99	25d	1	0.46mi
8926 Manor Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1165	$1,800	$1.55	25d	2	0.53mi
8926 Manor Loop #201 Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,700	$2.16	16d	1	0.54mi
8932 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,900	$1.76	25d	1	0.55mi
8925 77th Ter E Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$4,200	$4.00	0d	68	0.66mi
6437 Brook Village Cv Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,945	$1.71	0d	16	1.03mi
7658 Plantation Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1282	$2,250	$1.76	0d	1	1.04mi
7654 Plantation Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1156	$2,150	$1.86	18d	1	1.04mi
7755 Plantation Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1282	$2,600	$2.03	25d	1	1.13mi
7279 Cedar Hollow Cir Unit Available Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1352	$3,500	$2.59	25d	1	1.18mi
7138 Cedar Hollow Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,000	$1.42	18d	1	1.20mi
8100 Natures Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$1,908	$1.75	0d	20	1.25mi
7224 Cedar Hollow Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	1.26mi
8110 Misty Wood Ave Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,890	$1.74	4d	18	1.36mi
6421 Bay Cedar Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,100	$1.54	25d	1	1.42mi
10520 Boardwalk Loop #302 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$4,750	$3.39	25d	1	1.45mi
6351 Bay Cedar Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $563 · $6,756/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $199,900 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,943 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,943 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,943
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,087
• − Management: −$2,087
• − HOA: −$6,756
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,392
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,197
• Household income: $121,659
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 240.7087
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.54%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-28 Sold (MLS) $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-07 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-24 Listed $161,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $123,750 Public Records
• 2010-11-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-13 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,943 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.