2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
720 sqft ·
Built 1928
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 114 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$891/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$309
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$187
Net cashflow
$253/mo
Annual
$3,034/yr
Cap rate
11.43%
Cash-on-cash
18.36%
DSCR
1.82
1% rule
1.51%
Cash to close
$16,520
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($891 rent vs $59k).
It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $54k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#214 in IL, #4,027 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities C-, commute D+, employment D+.
Roxana CUSD 1 (suburban): math 18% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #440 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 5.9% in Wood River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NVKH4FCPRG9YH0
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29