4472 Fm 420 Rd

Kountze, TX 77625

$90,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,481/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $548/mo
• Annual: $6,579/yr
• Cap rate: 13.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.11%
• DSCR: 2.16
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#219 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kountze ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #506 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor: Bathroom vanity — Worn appearance
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered and discoloration
• Moderate: Flooring — Worn appearance
• Moderate: Paint — Faded in some areas
• Minor: Windows — Need cleaning