4472 Fm 420 Rd · Kountze, TX 77625

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Average condition 0.74 ac lot $51/sqft · 42% below area Est $154k · 42% under ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home located only one mile from Big Thicket Nature Trails. Greet the deer in the morning or moo back at the cows as the home is partially surrounded by pasture. Inside features a wood burning fireplace and large open concept living and dining area and a built in pantry. Large utility room as well as a very spacious master bedroom with his and her closets.

Key facts

• 0.74 acre lot
• Garage
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Brick veneer and frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#219 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kountze ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #506 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.11%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,324
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -41.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $20,355
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $62,776
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77625

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $90,000 Active 229-char remark
2. 2026-03-15
   price $108,000
3. 2022-03-25
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   Don't miss out on this 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home located only one mile from Big Thicket Nature Trails. Greet the deer in the morning or moo back at the cows as the home is partially surrounded by pasture. Inside features a wood burning fireplace and large open concept living and dining area and a built in pantry. Large utility room as well as a very spacious master bedroom with his and her closets.

4. 2022-02-02
   listed $165,000

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   Don't miss out on this 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home located only one mile from Big Thicket Nature Trails. Greet the deer in the morning or moo back at the cows as the home is partially surrounded by pasture. Inside features a wood burning fireplace and large open concept living and dining area and a built in pantry. Large utility room as well as a very spacious master bedroom with his and her closets.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,313
• After-tax cash flow: $5,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This home has average condition with moderate repairs needed, offering potential for significant value increase with cosmetic and minor repairs.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom vanity — Worn appearance
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and discoloration
• Moderate Flooring — Worn appearance
• Moderate Paint — Faded in some areas
• Minor Windows — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and minor repairs — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both HVAC cleaning — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom vanity · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and discoloration	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Flooring · Worn appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Paint · Faded in some areas	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Windows · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$10,500–54,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and minor repairs — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both HVAC cleaning — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kountze ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825920
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,702
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6244
• State rank: #506 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kountze

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #5401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,384

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.86%
• Current HPI: 148.6087
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-45.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $90,000 BBOR
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $108,000 BBOR
• 2022-03-25 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2022-02-02 Listed $165,000 BBOR