3103 Sumner Ave

Hoquiam, WA 98550

$179,500B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,340 sqft · Built 1929 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,910/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax + insurance: −$595
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-329/yr
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.53%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $50,260

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-329/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (2.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $175k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#171 in WA, #4,268 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Hoquiam School District (town): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #250 of 291 in WA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.8% in Hoquiam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.